By Martin Peterson
This advent to selection conception deals complete and available discussions of decision-making below lack of expertise and danger, the rules of software thought, the talk over subjective and aim chance, Bayesianism, causal choice conception, online game concept, and social selection concept. No mathematical talents are assumed, and all suggestions and effects are defined in non-technical and intuitive in addition to extra formal methods. There are over a hundred routines with options, and a word list of keywords and ideas. An emphasis on foundational features of normative determination thought (rather than descriptive determination concept) makes the ebook rather invaluable for philosophy scholars, however it will entice readers in various disciplines together with economics, psychology, political technology and computing device technological know-how.
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Additional info for An Introduction to Decision Theory (Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy)
2 Live as if God exists God exists (1/2) God does not exist (1/2) Heaven – infinite gain. You gain nothing and lose nothing. Live a Godless life Hell – infinite loss. You gain nothing and lose nothing. 3 (a) Pascals point is that the expected value of believing in God exceeds that of not believing. The secondary literature on this argument is massive, so I leave it to the reader to make up his or her own mind about it. (b) The assumption about a 50% probability is not important. All that matters is that the probability that God exists is > 0.
Because of this, she is in effect facing a decision under ignorance. In decision theory ignorance is a technical term with a very precise meaning. 1). Sometimes the term decision under uncertainty is used synonymously. Jane feels that ordering a hamburger would be a safe option, and a hamburger would also be better than having no main course at all. Furthermore, she feels that good monkfish is better than an edible hamburger, but terrible monkfish is worse than having no main course at all. This ranking of outcomes can be represented on an ordinal scale, as explained in Chapter 2.
B) Formalise and visualise the decision problem in a decision tree. (c) Represent the five possible outcomes in an ordinal scale. 5 A friend offers you to invest all your savings, $100,000, in his dot com company. You find it very hard to understand the business plan he presents to you, but your friend tells you that your $100,000 will certainly be worth at least $10M within two years. Naturally, your friend may be right, but he may also be wrong – you feel that you cannot estimate the probabilities for this.